Short-term prognosis

Every spring, Financial Research Plc. researchers review and analyse in detail the main economic processes and economic institutional changes of the previous year ? with regard to how these conform to tendencies of earlier periods. At this time, the second forecast for the current year is published. The Plc. staff will have completed their first forecast during the autumn preceding the current year. In this short-term prognosis for the year, the growth of the Hungarian economy is predicted, as well as factors determining growth from the aspect of supply and demand, and internal and external balance formation indices, based on expected developments in the world economy and economic policy (the main characteristics of world economic prosperity, GDP, investments, functioning capital flow, consumption, salaries, prices, interest rates, exchange rates, savings, employment, foreign trade, industry, construction, retail trade, agricultural economy, the state budget and the current condition of the balance of payments).

Long-term prognosis

In the first half of each year, Financial Research Plc. also compiles a prognosis for the long term, i.e. for the next five years with regard to expected changes in the main macro-economic indices for the Hungarian economy. In these studies, forecasts are made with regard to world economic prosperity and price changes, GDP, investments, consumption, foreign trade, growth in industry, changes in the employment situation, consumer price levels, interest rate and exchange rate changes, as well as the expected condition of the balance of payments and the state budget.

Price forecasts

Both annually and quarterly, researchers from Financial Research Plc. produce long- and short-term prognoses on the changes in consumer inflation and in domestic industrial sales price levels. In the latter area, expected changes in price pressure from domestic producers in the food industry and the energy sector are also indicated.